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Four short seasons a year.

Most setups can appear on any day. Earnings episodic pivots mostly arrive in a few concentrated weeks each quarter. That makes the earnings calendar a natural study schedule.

6 min readStudy process

The quarterly rhythm

In his episodic pivot post, Kullamägi describes the EP as the least frequent of his three setups, the one with the best risk-to-reward, and one that mostly occurs during a concentrated three to four weeks every quarter. He suggests that this makes it well suited to someone with a job, since the busy period is short and predictable.

The FAQ reflects the same rhythm in the daily routine it describes: only during earnings season does the routine include checking for earnings winners gapping up, starting roughly an hour to an hour and a half before the US open.

How long it takes to learn

The posts give a time frame in seasons rather than months. The three-setups article says learning the setup takes four to eight earnings seasons, one to two years. The later post says three to four seasons to get good, and that it took about seven or eight seasons personally, a self-reported figure.

Count seasons, not tradesA season produces a burst of examples followed by weeks of follow-through. Judging the setup on one season means judging it on one market environment.

Tools mentioned publicly

The episodic pivot post names the following for finding and checking EPs:

Scan

Gap scanner

Any platform's scanner for stocks gapping higher in extended hours.

News

Catalyst check

Seeking Alpha and Finviz as free options for the news behind the gap.

Data

Earnings history

Koyfin and MarketSmith for past earnings and sales and the estimates for coming years.

Before the season (our routine)

The routine in this and the next section is this site's own suggestion for turning the rhythm into study time.

  • Review last season's log: which gaps followed through, and which failed.
  • Build a list of reporting dates for names already on your watchlists.
  • Prepare a template for each candidate: gap, volume pace, growth figures, beat size, prior three to six months.
  • Decide in advance how many new positions you will allow at once.

During and after the season (our routine)

  1. Each morning, list every 10%+ gapper and its catalyst.
  2. Record volume pace in the first 30 minutes for each one.
  3. Fill in the template for every candidate, traded or not.
  4. One month and three months later, add the outcome.
  5. Before the next season, compare outcomes by catalyst, volume pace and prior performance.

The report itself is covered in the earnings EP checklist, and the volume reading in opening volume as EP confirmation.

The season checklist

  1. Last season reviewed and summarized.
  2. Reporting dates collected.
  3. Candidate template ready.
  4. Daily gapper log kept, traded or not.
  5. Outcomes added at one and three months.
Seasonality, learning time (partly self-reported) and tools from How to master a setup: Episodic Pivots (Nov 2021) and 3 timeless setups (Jan 2021); routine timing from the qullamaggie.com FAQ. The before, during and after routine is this site's own. Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading can result in substantial loss.
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